Many a women’s basketball pundit and many a women’s basketball follower envisioned that this year’s WNBA Finals would be between the Los Angeles Sparks and Minnesota Lynx.
Now, all of those predictions have indeed come to reality as Cheryl Reeve’s Lynx are aiming for their fourth championship in six years and Brian Agler’s Sparks are looking for its first title since 2002.
The Sparks and Lynx have met a total of three times this season with two of the victories going the way of Minnesota. The two teams played twice prior to the Olympic break and once post-break. The first meeting came when both teams were in the throes of undefeated seasons and it was one of the most ballyhooed games in the WNBA this year.
Minnesota won the first game 72-69 as the difference being a Renee Montgomery three-pointer with under three seconds remaining. This pushed the Lynx’s record to 13-0 while the Sparks suffered their first loss of the season.
Ironically enough, the Sparks-Lynx matchup that was close took place in Los Angeles at the Staples Center. Three days later, the two teams did battle again—this time at the Target Center. Even though the game was in the Twin Cities, Los Angeles clearly was the better team the second time around as they thrashed Minnesota, 94-76.
At that point, both unbeaten had fallen—to the previously unbeaten team.
Last month, the Sparks and Lynx met for a third time—once again in Southern California. And once again, the team on the road came out on top as the Lynx defeated the Sparks 77-74.
If the regular season is any indication of how the WNBA Finals will play out, one may think advantage Sparks given that three of the five games are in Minnesota.
Typically in basketball, moreso than other sports, home court advantage can mean the difference between being champions and going home as runners-up. The motto seems to have been, this year, when it comes to the Sparks and Lynx—have travel, will win.
The playoffs have been a relatively small sample size for both Minnesota and Los Angeles with the Lynx having only played three games and the Sparks only partaking in four thus far. This is, of course, thanks to the new playoff format that allowed both top seeds to earn automatic double-byes into the semifinals—one that lent itself to exactly what we are getting with the Sparks and Lynx.
During the regular season, the Lynx averaged 85.8 points per game—second in the league with only the Chicago Sky averaging more. Also during the regular season, the Sparks posted the best defense in terms of points allowed, giving up less than 76 per contest. Minnesota, though, was not too far behind, allowing 77 per game.
Ball movement has also been a key ingredient to both teams’ success this season as the Lynx and Sparks were the only two teams during the regular season to average at least 20 assists per game. Rebounding appears to be an advantage with the Lynx as they are 35.8-31.5 ahead of the Sparks in that category.
While Minnesota has averaged more than four rebounds a game than Los Angeles, the advantage also shows up on the offensive glass with the Sparks averaging only 6.7 per game—last in the WNBA. The Lynx were at 9.7, but well below the league-leading Dallas Wings who pulled down 11 offensive boards per contest. The Sparks made up for this, though, via a high field goal percentage at 48.7 per game.
Free throws appear to be even (Lynx—80.6, Sparks 79.1), but threes? Advantage Sparks. Los Angeles led the league in three-point shooting with a 37.5 percentage and Minnesota at 33.7.
Of course, the Sparks have both the league’s reigning MVP in Nneka Ogwumike (66.5 from the field), as well as Candace Parker who is a two-time recipient of that award. Both of whom are in the top ten for the season in points scored with Ogwumike at 19.7 and Parker at 15.3. Maya Moore also finished in the top ten in the regular season at 19.3.
While the rebounding game appeared to favor the Lynx teamwise—both Ogwumike (9.1 RPG—third in league) and Parker (7.4 RPG—tied for ninth) are also in the top ten in the league among players. So is the Lynx’s Sylvia Fowles, this year’s Defensive Player of the Year at 8.5 per game.
Behind the arc, it may very well be a case of Maya Moore vs. Kristi Toliver. Moore nearly has averaged two three-pointers per game while Toliver is at 2.5 for third in the league. Defensively, there is also a reason why the Sparks’ Alana Beard made the All-WNBA First Team Defense—nearly two steals per game.
Interestingly, enough, in the one game where the Sparks defeated the Lynx, they shot 58 percent from behind the three-point arc—including seven threes from Toliver. It was also the only one of the three games where Los Angeles had a field goal percentage of at least 50 as well as a free-throw shooting percentage near 90 (88.2).
In the two contests that tilted the Lynx’s way, Reeve’s defense made things difficult for Parker. In the 77-74 game, Parker shot only three for 11 from the field. In the 72-69 matchup, she was held to only three of 13 from the field. Ogwumike and Parker were held to nine points each in that first game this year resulting in a Lynx victory.
Minnesota also outrebounded Los Angeles in both of its wins over the Sparks—42-29 in the 72-69 contest and 35-28 in the 77-74 game. Even in the game that was a blowout win for the Sparks, they only had a rebounding edge of 29-28.
Schedule:
Sparks at Lynx 3 pm Oct 9
Sparks at Lynx 9 pm Oct 11
Lynx at Sparks 9 pm Oct 14
Lynx at Sparks 8:30 pm Oct 16 (if necessary)
Sparks at Lynx 8 pm Oct 20 (if necessary)
By: Akiem Bailum (@AkiemBailum on Twitter, Instagram)
